Machine Learning Macro-Econometrics: Predictors of the United States’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2009-2016

By Alfio Cerami, 15 July 2018 Home-Page: https://alfiocerami.wordpress.com/ Email: ceramial@gmail.com

Net National Income (NNI) per capita, Household expenditures, Compensation of employees (non financial corporations) and Net Capital Stock seem to be beneficial for GDP growth. Two main predictors for GDP growth in the USA seem to be: Two main predictors for GDP growth seem to be: Net National Income (NNI) per capita and Net Capital Stock. But more information would be needed.

Calculations based on Michael Pyrcz, Ph.D., Decision Tree in Python for Engineers and Geoscientists. DOCS available here.

 

 

EARLY WARNING: FOLLOWING MACROECOMETRICS

PROBLEMS WITH PYTHON DATABASE HANDLING STILL TO BE SOLVED. TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS 

Predictors of Gross Domestic Product USA GDP (data from OECD 2018).

GDP: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Current Billion USD, PPPs. Year: 2009-2016	INCOME: Net National Income (NNI) per capita, at current prices and PPPs, OECD=100
EXPENDITURES: Household Final Consumption Expenditures, percentage of GDP	PRODUCTION: Gross Value Added (GVA), at basic prices, volume, annual growth rates in percentage
HOUSEHOLD: Gross Household Adjusted Disposable Income, income per capita, US Dollars, current prices and current PPPs	GENERAL GOVERNMENT: Net Lending/Borrowing, General Government, percentage of GDP
CORPORATIONS: Compensation of employees, non financial corporations, percentage of added value net	CAPITAL: Net capital stock, volume, year 2010=100

 

DATA

 

Summary Statistics

 

Graphical Correlation Matrix Visualization

Limited mix of correlation magnitudes. White areas represent the negative values of general government net lending/borrowings.

Net National Income (NNI) per capita, Household expenditures, Compensation of employees (non financial corporations) and Net Capital Stock seem to be beneficial for GDP growth (see how colors move towards the end of the scale. Yellow point).

 

 

Plots

Small-N database. The data are, unfortunately, not completly exhaustive. More information would be needed.

 

Two Main Predictors of GDP Growth

Two main predictors for GDP growth seem to be: Net National Income (NNI) per capita and Net Capital Stock. But more information would be needed.